🔥 NEW Deep Dive Analysis: Bullish ($BLSH)

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Deep Dive Analysis: Bullish (BLSH-US, $9.2B MCAP)

Who said IPOs were dead?

Over the last few months, we’ve had several hit the public markets red hot! And you can certainly add this company to that growing list.

On top of that, the company is operating in the crypto sector — a part of the market that’s seeing institutionalization, easing regulation, and maturation.

In this post, I’m going to continue my recent series on covering IPOs. While first-day trading pops are nice, I prefer understanding these businesses, then waiting for a more attractive entry point down the line.

So let’s dig in!

• Hot IPO 👉 Day One Sizzle

• Overview 👉 What Does Bullish Do?

• Crypto Wave 👉 Bullish’s Place in the Coming Disruption

• Business Units 👉 How Do They Make Money?

• How Do They Make Money? 👉 Segment Revenue Breakdown

• By The Numbers 👉 Key Metrics

• Risks 👉 Potential Pitfalls

• Wrapping Up 👉 Buy/Sell Consideration

Hot IPO 👉 Day One Sizzle

Bullish Global burst onto the market in mid-August 2025 amid a resurgence of crypto IPO enthusiasm. Priced at $37 per share, the offering (upsized to 30 million shares) raised about $1.11 billion, implying a starting market cap of approximately $5.4 billion. Investor demand sent BLSH shares soaring: the stock opened around $90, briefly topping $118 (over 150% above the IPO price) before settling in the high $80s. At its intraday high, Bullish was valued near $13.2 billion. This day-one pop underscores the excitement in crypto-exchange listings, riding the coattails of recent crypto winners.

In June 2025, Circle Internet Group saw its shares surge approximately 750% post-IPO as investors rushed into crypto infrastructure. Figma’s design-software IPO in mid-July jumped about 250% on debut. By contrast, some peers caution restraint: for example, eToro (ETOR) popped then languished (up 6% since IPO) after its May listing. Bullish watchers hope BLSH behaves more like CRCL’s rocket ship than ETOR’s tepid follow-through.

Trading activity was extreme. Bullish’s share price spiked so sharply that the NYSE halted trading several times due to volatility. Such volatility reflects the broader crypto wave. Bitcoin and Ethereum have been climbing toward new highs, and the Trump administration’s pro-crypto policies, such as the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, have buoyed investor sentiment. Early institutional interest has been intense. Major asset managers BlackRock and Cathie Wood’s ARK reportedly committed up to $200 million each to buy BLSH shares in the IPO, reflecting confidence in the story of a crypto exchange going public.

Overview 👉 What Does Bullish Do?

Bullish Global is a crypto exchange and services group built for institutional and professional traders. Founded in 2020 by Block.one, with former NYSE president Tom Farley as CEO, it operates a regulated order book exchange for spot and derivatives, emphasizing liquidity and compliance. Its hybrid design combines order books with automated market making (the AMMI protocol) to ensure markets remain liquid around the clock.

Bullish also owns CoinDesk, acquired in 2023. Under that umbrella are CoinDesk Indices, which licenses single-asset and broad-market benchmarks to asset managers, and CoinDesk Data & Insights, which sells market data and research, supports a large paid user base, and monetizes the news site through subscriptions and advertising.

The aim is a full-stack model that pairs a deep-liquidity venue with media, data, indices, and events such as Consensus. Management highlights cross-selling and diversified revenues to buffer crypto cycles. The prospectus reported approximately $28 million in cash and $1.93 billion in crypto assets at year-end 2024, reflecting exchange custody and treasury holdings.

Crypto Wave 👉 Bullish’s Place in the Coming Disruption

Bullish aims to ride the next wave of crypto adoption. With the global crypto market cap topping $4 trillion, traditional finance is still awakening to blockchain technology. The current environment is unusually favorable: last year saw a flurry of legal moves, including the U.S. stablecoin framework via the GENIUS Act and upcoming EU MiCA rules, legitimizing digital assets. This has “prompted investors to embrace the once-scorned digital asset class.” Bitcoin and Ethereum are flirting with record highs (approximately $115,000 and $4,300, respectively), and crypto trading volumes are rising again.

Bullish specifically markets to institutions. Its leadership argues that focusing on big players—custodians, trading firms, and brokerage desks—yields steadier fees than a retail-centric model. CEO Tom Farley has noted that catering to wealth managers and 401(k) plans (with crypto integration) should drive “more stable, recurring revenue than exchanges reliant on retail volumes.” A recent White House executive order encouraging crypto in retirement funds underpins this vision. By providing an institutional-grade platform (with the prestige of NYSE alumni running it), Bullish aims to capture the growing pool of crypto capital moving from hedge fund balance sheets into mainstream portfolios.

This all happens while Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) announced plans to issue up to $20 billion in new stock to significantly increase its Ethereum (ETH) holdings. The company, led by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, currently owns about 1.15 million ETH tokens worth $4.96 billion — roughly 1% of all ETH in circulation — but aims to acquire 5% of the global supply.

Bitmine is part of a growing group of “crypto treasury companies” that raise capital by selling stock and using the proceeds to buy and hold cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets, a strategy popularized by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR).

But it’s not only about BTC and ETH — CEA Industries (BNC) has now become the largest corporate holder of the Binance coin (BNB). CEA Industries’ treasury arm, BNB Network Company, has purchased 200,000 BNB tokens for $160 million, making it the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency.

The acquisition follows a $500 million private placement led by 10X Capital and YZi Labs, with plans to focus the company’s treasury strategy exclusively on BNB. Leadership changes accompanied the move, with Galaxy Digital co-founder David Namdar becoming CEO.

CEA Industries (BNC) intends to keep buying BNB until all treasury funds are deployed, positioning the company as a major long-term player in the token’s market. If warrants tied to the recent fundraising are exercised, the company could have as much as $1.25 billion available for further BNB acquisitions.

Bullish sees itself as staking out a prime position in the trend toward crypto’s institutionalization.

Business Units 👉How Do They Make Money? (Segment Revenue)

Bullish’s revenue is split roughly into three buckets—exchange trading fees, indices/data licensing, and media/events—with the trading platform dominating. Key sources include:

• Trading Platform (Spot & Derivatives): The core money-maker. Bullish charges transaction fees on every spot crypto trade, perpetual futures fees, and margin fees on leveraged positions. It also earns net interest from lending assets to margin traders. These fees contribute directly to revenue. The IPO filing emphasizes that “a substantial portion” of Bullish’s revenue comes from transaction, perpetual, and margin fees on its exchange. For example, in Q1 2025, trading volume was approximately $80 billion across all trades, generating about $42 million in adjusted transaction revenue. Bullish also uses its own capital as a market maker in thin markets, capturing part of the bid-ask spread through the AMMI mechanism.

• CoinDesk Indices (Licensing Fees): Bullish has built a suite of crypto indices (broad-market, sector-specific, and single-asset indexes) under the CoinDesk brand. It licenses these to institutional investors and fund issuers who want a benchmark or to create index-based products. Fees are typically based on assets under management (AUM) tracking the index. Though still small—the S-1 notes CoinDesk Indices revenue is not material compared to the whole—this is a unique annuity stream. As the prospectus states: “CoinDesk Indices provides benchmarks for global institutions,” and Bullish “earns licensing fees, which may be based on the licensee’s AUM.”

• Media & Data (Advertising, Subscriptions, Events): Through CoinDesk’s media properties, Bullish earns advertising and subscription revenue. The CoinDesk website, newsletters, and conferences (such as Consensus) generate millions in advertising and sponsorship sales. CoinDesk Data, including the CCData acquisition, sells market data subscriptions to professional users (approximately 171,000 paid users as of Q1 2025). It also benefits from events; for example, Consensus Hong Kong 2025 contributed to a Q1 revenue jump. In 2025, media and advertising may contribute a low single-digit percentage of total revenue but diversify the business.

• Other: Bullish holds crypto assets and earns yield, though these are primarily treasury activities. It also operates Bullish Custody, a crypto and fiat custody service in Hong Kong, and is pursuing regulatory licenses (e.g., a New York BitLicense), which could enable fee-based custody income in the future. However, nearly all current revenue flows from exchange trading and the associated CoinDesk lines.

Bullish is exchange-first: think of it as a stock exchange or Robinhood Pro for crypto, charging fees on every trade. The CoinDesk assets are complementary—licensing and advertising generate additional high-margin revenue. Together, this yields a diversified but heavily crypto-driven revenue profile.

By The Numbers 👉 Key Metrics

Trading Volumes: Bullish’s trading volumes are robust. In Q1 2025, the exchange reported approximately $647 billion in total spot volume, with average daily trading volume reaching about $2.55 billion, up approximately 78% from a year prior, reflecting increased trading days or broader market participation, as sales totals remained similar. Volumes dipped in Q2 estimates, but this institutional scale (billions per day) is healthy for a relatively new exchange.

Revenue: On an adjusted (non-IFRS) basis, Q1 2025 transaction revenue was $42 million, 7% below the $45 million in Q1 2024. The drop is attributed to wider spreads, as Bullish intentionally tightened fees to gain market share. Overall adjusted revenue, including CoinDesk subscriptions and advertising, reached $62 million, up 17% year-over-year, driven by a surge in subscription and event income. However, GAAP net income was impacted by crypto volatility: Q1 2025 saw a $349 million net loss, compared to a $105 reversal in fair-value losses on crypto holdings and inventory, as crypto prices fell 20–30% in Q1 2025. Excluding these swings, Bullish was roughly break-even to slightly profitable, with Q1 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $13 million.

Customer Base: Bullish serves a small but institutional customer base. As of March 2025, active institutional clients grew 36% year-over-year to approximately 6,000, with thousands of professional accounts. Notably, a handful of customers dominate trading: the S-1 discloses that in Q1 2025, the top five customers accounted for 69% of spot volume and 83% of transaction revenue. At CoinDesk, a few large media clients similarly drive much of the advertising and subscription revenue. This concentration underscores that Bullish’s fortunes hinge on retaining key liquidity providers and trading houses.

Balance Sheet: Bullish entered the IPO well-capitalized. As of March 31, 2025, it held approximately $2.2 billion in cash and readily marketable digital assets (including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins), compared to $241 million in Q1 2024. This liquidity provides runway and credibility with regulators and counterparties. The company also carries $551 million in convertible notes. In equity, Bullish had approximately 226 million Class A shares outstanding pre-IPO; after the offering and post-IPO reorganization, total shares are approximately 256 million, including founder holdings.

Risks 👉 Potential Pitfalls

• Crypto Volatility: The primary risk is sharp swings in crypto prices and volumes. Financial results flipped from a $105 million profit in Q1 2024 to a $349 million loss in Q1 2025, highlighting how volatile volumes and inventory values can erode profitability.

  Regulatory Uncertainty: Regulations remain in flux across major markets. Tougher oversight, DeFi crackdowns, or a new administration could restrict products or increase compliance costs.

• Competition: Coinbase and Binance have far greater scale, user bases, and brand power. Even with an institutional focus, large rivals and decentralized venues could attract the same clients.

  Concentration of Customers: A small number of high-volume clients drive a significant share of activity. Losing even one or two could materially impact volumes and revenue.

• Technology and Security: Exchanges are prime targets for hacks and outages. Any breach or instability could trigger client flight and financial damage.

• Profitability Pressure: The company is loss-making and plans to trade lower fees for higher volume. If scale does not materialize quickly, fixed costs and dilution could weigh on returns.

• Foreign Issuer Status: As a Cayman-based foreign issuer, Bullish faces lighter reporting requirements than U.S. filers. Some investors may discount the stock due to unfamiliar filings and perceived weaker protections.

Wrapping Up 👉 Buy/Sell Consideration

Bullish Global’s debut was impressive, signaling confidence in crypto’s next chapter. Its institutional focus, CoinDesk integration, and seasoned leadership are strengths that could deliver outsized growth if digital asset adoption accelerates. The post-IPO surge suggests many investors buy into this thesis.

However, the valuation is demanding, and the business is not yet proven at scale or consistently profitable. A sharp first-quarter loss underscores crypto’s volatility, while heavyweight rivals like Coinbase and global exchanges in Asia and Europe remain formidable competitors. The balanced view is high risk with high upside. Backing from notable investors and a diversified model are positives, but success hinges on market cycles and regulatory support.

If you are optimistic about digital assets and comfortable with volatility, BLSH offers equity exposure to crypto’s growth. If you are cautious, waiting for a pullback or clearer execution may be prudent. Diversification and position sizing are critical, as early euphoria may not last.

Cheers,

The GRIT Alpha Team

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