A Full Analysis of Nebius ($NBIS)

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Today we’re breaking down a company that just signed one of the largest AI infrastructure deals in history, a $27 billion contract with Meta. And not to mention, the stock is up over +346% in the past year. Yes… you read that correctly.

Stock Deep Dive: Nebius Group NV (NBIS-US, $24B MCAP)

Nebius Group is building the AI factories behind the AI boom. While most investors focus on Nvidia’s chips or OpenAI’s models, Nebius sits in the layer between them, building and operating GPU-heavy data centers and selling that compute as a cloud service. It is not just an AI landlord. It also helps design, power, and run the infrastructure.

The company, spun out of Yandex’s international operations, has scaled fast. In just months, it signed a $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion deal with Microsoft, took a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia, and landed a $27 billion infrastructure agreement with Meta. ARR reached $1.2 billion at the end of 2025, and management is guiding for $3 billion to $3.4 billion in 2026 revenue with roughly 40% adjusted EBITDA margins.

The debate is execution versus expectations. At about a $25 billion market cap and 56x trailing sales, the stock is pricing in a near-perfect outcome. The bull case is that Nebius has already secured the demand. The bear case is that scaling gigawatt-level infrastructure is difficult, capital intensive, and can bring dilution or leverage risk. Either way, it is one of the market’s most important AI infrastructure stories.

• Why Now? 👉 The Neocloud Moment

• Overview 👉 What Does Nebius Do? Role in Ecosystem

• How Do They Win? 👉 Value Proposition

• Business Units 👉 Segment Breakdown

• How Do They Make Money? 👉 Revenue Model

• By The Numbers 👉 Key Metrics

• Bonus: Deep Dive 👉 What Drives Nebius?

• Risks 👉 Potential Pitfalls

• Wrapping Up…

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Why Now? 👉 The Neocloud Moment

Nebius matters right now because the AI infrastructure buildout has entered a new phase. Hyperscalers like Meta, Microsoft, and Google are no longer just building their own data centers. They are also contracting with "neocloud" providers like Nebius to access GPU compute capacity faster than they can build it themselves. Meta’s $135 billion AI capex plan for 2026 alone makes the point: even the biggest companies in the world cannot build fast enough to keep up with demand. Nebius has emerged as a critical partner to fill that gap.

The catalyst timeline tells the story. In September 2025, Nebius signed a deal with Microsoft worth $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion over five years. In March 2026, Nvidia invested $2 billion for an 8.3% ownership stake, explicitly endorsing Nebius as a strategic partner for deploying next-generation GPU architectures at scale. Five days later, Meta signed a $27 billion infrastructure agreement with Nebius, including $12 billion in dedicated capacity featuring one of the first large-scale deployments of Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin chips. These are not speculative letters of intent. They are contracted, multi-year commitments that give Nebius a level of revenue visibility that almost no company at this stage of growth can claim.

Overview 👉 What Does Nebius Do? Role in Ecosystem

Nebius Group is an AI infrastructure company headquartered in Amsterdam. It builds and operates full-stack AI cloud infrastructure, meaning it handles everything from securing land and power for data centers to deploying large-scale GPU clusters and offering cloud compute services to customers. The company’s core product is Nebius AI Cloud, a platform that provides GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) to AI labs, enterprises, and hyperscalers who need massive compute for training and inference workloads.

The company originated from Yandex, the Russian technology giant often described as "the Google of Russia." After geopolitical events in 2022, Yandex restructured and spun off its international operations into Nebius Group, which began trading independently on the Nasdaq. Nebius retained Yandex’s deep engineering talent, particularly in AI, cloud infrastructure, and large-scale systems. The founder and CEO, Arkady Volozh, is a veteran technologist who built Yandex from scratch, which gives Nebius an unusual depth of engineering DNA for a company that effectively relaunched in 2024.

Beyond the core AI cloud business, Nebius operates several smaller ventures: Toloka, a data labeling and AI training data platform; TripleTen, an edtech business for tech reskilling; and Avride, an autonomous driving and delivery robotics subsidiary. While these businesses are interesting optionality, the investment thesis is almost entirely about the AI cloud infrastructure buildout.

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